旅遊網

評析：大家可以看一下2月份的經濟學人雜誌，看看人家怎麼看台灣的！！唉～～

中文翻譯：轉載自http://www.ecocn.org/wordpress/?p=704

Feb 12th 2009 From The Economist print edition

『Mirror, mirror on the wall

The ugliest economy of them all?

WHICH economy has been hit hardest by the global slump? In its back pages and on its website The Economist tracks 55 countries each week. Based on industrial production, Taiwan has suffered much the biggest shock. Output fell by 32% in the 12 months to December; in the fourth quarter it plunged at an annual rate of 62%. GDP figures, due on February 18th, will be grim.

哪個經濟體在全球經濟衰退中中招最深？《經濟學人》每週在雜誌的尾頁及其網站上都會追蹤報導55個國家的狀況。按照工業產量計算，台灣遭受的衝擊最大。一至十二月份台灣產出下降了32%，第四季度的年度出產率驟降62%。定於2月18日公佈的GDP數字將會令人沮喪

Taiwan is one of the world’s most export-dependent economies, making many high-tech gadgets for Western consumers, so it has been battered by the slump in global demand. Exports plunged by a record 44% in the year to January. The slide in exports has been exacerbated by a drying up of trade credit. This partly explains why imports also fell by 57% over the period. Exports may therefore partly recover as credit improves. But Taiwan’s competitiveness has been eroded by its relatively strong currency. The New Taiwan dollar has appreciated by more than 40% against the South Korean won since the start of 2008.

台灣是世界上最依賴出口的經濟體之一，主要為西方消費者生產高科技元件，因此在世界需求銳減時損失慘重。截止一月份，台灣出口暴跌了創記錄的44%。而貿易信貸的枯竭對於下滑的出口無異於雪上加霜。這點部分解釋了進口在過去一段時間下滑57%的原因。如果信貸有所改善，出口就有可能得到部分恢復。但台灣的競爭力已經因其堅挺的貨幣而受到侵蝕。自2008年初，新台幣對韓元的匯率上漲了40%還多。

Exports to China have declined by 59% over the past year, twice as fast as exports to America. Sales to China (over one-quarter of the total) consist largely of electronic components, and have been hit by massive Chinese destocking. The island’s electronics industry is enduring its worst-ever slump. Cheng Cheng-mount, a Taipei-based economist with Citibank, points out that Taiwan’s mainstay exports, such as flat-screen monitors and semiconductors, were in oversupply even before the global financial crisis. Now, he estimates, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, is running at around 35% of capacity.

台灣對中國大陸的出口去年下降了59%，這個數字是對美出口下滑率的兩倍。出口到中國大陸的產品（佔總出口的四分之一還多）大部分是電子元件，因大陸企業緊縮庫存而受到很大衝擊。台灣得電子產業正在經歷有史以來最嚴重的大蕭條。花旗銀行在台北的經濟學家鄭貞茂指出，台灣出口的主要產品如純屏顯示器和半導體甚至在全球金融危機發生前就供應過度。他估計說，世界最大的集成電路製造商台積公司現在的生產量只能達到其最大產能的35%左右。

Falling exports have, in turn, squeezed domestic spending. Unemployment rose to a six-year high of 5% in December, and the true picture may be far bleaker. Taiwanese companies tend to wait until after the lunar new year holiday before swinging the axe. Average wages have also fallen by 5% in real terms over the past year. Many companies are ordering employees to take unpaid leave. The volume of retail sales slumped by 11% in the year to December.

出口下滑反過來壓制了台灣島內的消費。12月份的失業率升至5%，為6年來的新高，現實情況可能更加黯淡無光。台灣的企業打算等農曆新年的假期過完後再揮動手中的斧頭。扣除物價因素，在去年一年工資平均下降了5%。許多公司讓員工停薪留職。去年一至十二月份，零售業總額下跌了11%。

Even before the financial crisis, household spending had seen the weakest growth rate among the East Asian tigers. One reason is that people with the spending power are elsewhere. Over the past eight years, around 1m Taiwanese business executives, who form much of the island’s moneyed managerial class, have moved to China to run factories there. Several economists are now forecasting that Taiwan’s GDP will contract by 3% or more this year, which would be the steepest downturn in Taiwan’s history. By far the gloomiest is CLSA, a broking firm, which is predicting a horrendous 11% drop in 2009.

甚至在金融危機發生前，台灣的住房消費增長率在「東亞四小龍」中就是最低的。一個原因就是有消費能力的人都在別的地方。在過去的八年裡，約有一百萬台灣企業界人士把工廠搬到了中國大陸，而台灣有錢的管理階層大部分由他們構成。幾位經濟學家現在預言，今年台灣的GDP將減少3%甚至更多，這將會是島內有史以來最嚴重的經濟衰退。迄今為止最悲觀的莫過於法國里昂證券，這家經紀公司預計2009年台灣的GDP將暴跌11%。

To prop up the economy, the central bank has cut interest rates six times since September, to 1.5%. The government also plans a fiscal stimulus of infrastructure investment, consumer handouts and tax cuts worth around 3% of GDP in 2009. To boost consumer spending, the government is giving each citizen a voucher worth NT$3,600 ($106). But many economists are sceptical about whether this will produce much new spending. According to Chen Miao, an economist with the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, a similar cash-handout scheme in Japan resulted in only 30% of recipients spending more than they had already planned. Anecdotal evidence so far paints a brighter picture. Department stores and supermarkets reported that sales over the lunar new year holiday were 10-20% higher than in 2008.

為了刺激經濟，中央銀行自九月份以來已連續6次下調利率，將利率降至1.5%。政府還制定了財政刺激計劃，用於投資基礎設施建設、發放消費券，以及價值 2009年GDP3%的減稅計劃。為拉動居民消費，政府將向每位公民發放價值3600元新台幣（106美元）的消費券。但許多經濟學家對於此舉能否催生大量新的消費行為表示懷疑。據台灣經濟研究所的經濟學家陳苗（音）說，在日本也有類似的發放現金的方案，只有30%的受領者花費的多於他們預期的打算。迄今為止，有個別的證據顯示未來前景光明。一些商店和超市稱在農曆新年假期裡的銷量比2008年上漲了10-20%。

In the longer term, improved ties with China will benefit the economy. For example, says Mr Chen, more direct flights between Taiwan and China should help. If Taiwan-based businessmen came home every quarter instead of every six months, it could boost ailing consumption. For now, however, Taiwan’s frightful economic news is more likely to encourage households to save rather than spend.』

從長遠看，同大陸改善關係有利於台灣經濟發展。例如，陳先生說兩岸直航次數的增加應該會起到作用。如果台灣的商人每三個月而不是半年回一趟家，就能夠推動疲軟的消費。不過，就眼下來說，台灣糟糕的經濟消息更可能讓居民們小心存錢而不是大把花錢。